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Helen Popper: global economics expert, and my professor

Marketplace: Global cooperation is way to recovery

This is an interesting link for two reasons.  First, it is one of many really mind-opening discussions on our economy, the global economy, and how we need to look at so many variables for just about everything.  And everyone has a different perspective.

Second, I am taking a class with Professor Popper this quarter. 

Tips on keeping your money in cash accounts – Apr. 2, 2009

Tips on keeping your money in cash accounts – Apr. 2, 2009 .

This fits in with my earlier post about a consumption-driven economy.  The savings rate is 3.6% now, which is very high for the US.  However, as one saves, that doesn’t mean that a .1% savings account is the only way to go.  Save wisely.

Right now, I’m spread out over a 2% yield savings account, rotating CD’s, and of course an appropriate amount of money in checking.  My retirement investments (which I’ve actually increased, so I guess that’s like more savings) are spread out over FDIC money market accounts and very conservative funds.  Small yield per year, but it’s not losing.  

(I also have a good chunk in a stock-oriented fund, ready to go as the market goes up…at some point).

Japan reconsidered – Paul Krugman Blog – NYTimes.com

Japan reconsidered – Paul Krugman Blog – NYTimes.com.

Last night, I did a presentation on part of a case I did in my macroeconomics class about the current economic crisis.  My team’s part was comparing the Great Depression and Japan’s “Lost Decade” with the current situation.  A rather big topic.  

Japan’s crisis is remarkably similar on a number of fronts to our current situation.  One notable aspect, touched slightly upon by Krugman in the linked post, is that of sluggish response.  In particular, it took the whole decade before someone said “let’s just admit the banks are in trouble and do a massive recapitalization.  That was a big move.  

Krugman is concerned that our situation might end up a lot worse than a decade that many economists consider “lost.”  That’s a bad thing to be thinking.  Someone in class last night asked me whether I thought, considering all of the new things the Fed is doing (credit easing, etc) under Bernanke and the stimulus package and possible additional efforts, we were going to get out of this.

Honestly?  If we don’t address the bank issue, I am not sure we’ll see the trough of this recession this year.  Yes, this entire year.  At best, I’m thinking mid-year before we see something.  That’s a while from now…

“Bring It” says the Fed

Fed assets total $1.89 trillion in latest week – MarketWatch .

This is kind of cool, because it really reveals some interesting stuff about the economic crisis and how the Fed has been trying to deal with it.  

Traditionally, the Federal Reserve Bank controls money supply in the market.  It does this by “targeting” interest rates and literally putting money in or taking money out of the market by buying or selling bonds.  When it raises interest rates, people save more and spend less, prices drop and inflation goes down.  When it lowers rates, people spend more and inflation goes up.  Throw in some changes in the supply of money and the GDP moves around in desirable ways.  

For…a very long time, what is called the “monetary base” of the Fed – the money which it controls and regulates, which it utilizes to fuel the economy – has been relatively stable.  However, because even a target 0% interest rate (it’s literally set to 0-.25% right now) has had almost no effect on spending (some thoughts on this later…) and therefore GDP won’t budge, the Fed has had to change the way it has gone about business.

First, it started bailing out AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, etc.  This meant that they basically started owning these institutions, and now the monetary base went up.  They then started a process of injecting money into other institutions through TARP and other tools and the base got even bigger.

And, as one can see right at the beginning of the article, what was $870 billion in December 2007 is now $1.89 TRILLION.  That’s how much the Fed has in assets.  

Bernanke, the Fed Chairman, has some good stuff…somewhere, about how this dollar amount will shrink naturally as certain items fall off the balance sheet, but the monetary base for the Fed will be higher moving forward.